Across Europe, agriculture is entering an era of unprecedented uncertainty. Farmers, policymakers, and investors are confronting a reality where climate extremes, volatile markets, and shifting economic conditions are making long-term planning more complex than ever. Decisions that once focused on the next harvest now demand a broader perspective—one that anticipates multiple possible futures and prepares for them.
Recognizing this challenge, the Augures! Project is stepping forward to equip Europe’s agricultural sector with the tools and insights it needs to navigate the coming decade. By harnessing cutting-edge science, Augures! aims to strengthen resilience, inform policy, and support investments that are adaptive and future-ready.
Agriculture at a Crossroads
The pressures facing European agriculture are converging. Climate variability is affecting yields in ways that are difficult to predict, while food security concerns are intensifying amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical shifts. Against this backdrop, the stakes for agricultural policy and investment planning have never been higher.
In December 2025, the Augures! team participated in the EU Agri-Food Days in Brussels, a high-profile event that convened farmers, researchers, entrepreneurs, insurers, and policymakers. Across panel discussions and informal exchanges, one theme consistently emerged: the urgent need to safeguard food security while managing climate risks and economic instability.
EU institutions have outlined clear priorities—food security, resilience, competitiveness, and fairness—but the current climate makes these goals more pressing than ever. A recent extraordinary meeting of EU agriculture ministers reinforced this message, positioning agriculture as a cornerstone of Europe’s economic resilience and strategic autonomy.
From Production to Systemic Resilience
One of the most striking insights from EU Agri-Food Days was that food security is no longer solely about production volumes. It is increasingly a question of systemic resilience: the capacity of farms, supply chains, and institutions to withstand shocks and recover quickly.
This is where the Augures! Project comes in. By improving agricultural foresight, the initiative provides decision-makers with the ability to anticipate multiple scenarios and prepare accordingly. Rather than predicting a single “most likely” future, Augures! supports strategies that are robust across a range of possible outcomes.
Europe’s farmers face a complex landscape. Climate patterns are shifting, historical baselines no longer provide reliable guidance, and economic pressures intersect with environmental challenges. Navigating this complexity requires a forward-looking approach that blends scientific data with practical decision-making tools.
Foresight for the Next Ten Years
Augures! focuses on a 10-year planning horizon—a critical timeframe for farm investments, infrastructure projects, and policy design. By integrating climate modeling, crop analysis, and socio-economic research, the project builds a comprehensive picture of risks and resilience options for the coming decade.
In practice, Augures! helps stakeholders:
- Mitigate climate and market risks by evaluating how different scenarios could affect crops, yields, and farm incomes.
- Design forward-looking CAP measures and insurance schemes that reflect projected challenges rather than past trends.
- Facilitate climate-resilient finance to align investments with sustainable farming practices.
- Support long-term farm planning for infrastructure, machinery, and diversification choices.
“This winter, the project will release the first European-wide assessment of climate impacts on wheat and maize crops,” notes Terry Nipp, Policy Lead at AgMIP and Augures! partner. “These findings will not only guide farmers and policymakers but also inform advisors, insurers, and investors looking to direct capital toward resilient agricultural systems in line with EU objectives.”
Collaboration as a Cornerstone
Science alone cannot build resilience. At EU Agri-Food Days, discussions highlighted that trust is equally vital. Europe’s agri-food ecosystem involves a wide range of actors—farmers, cooperatives, advisors, insurers, and policymakers—each with distinct priorities and constraints. Turning scientific insights into actionable strategies depends on both credibility and collaborative engagement.
Augures! addresses this challenge by embedding co-design and stakeholder dialogue throughout its research process. By working closely with those who will ultimately use the foresight tools, the project ensures that its outputs are practical, relevant, and trusted. Farmers can make informed choices, insurers can better assess risk, and policymakers can craft CAP measures that truly reflect the realities on the ground.
Looking Ahead
The next decade will be pivotal for European agriculture. Climate change, market fluctuations, and socio-economic pressures will continue to challenge traditional approaches. But with foresight, planning, and collaboration, the sector can navigate uncertainty and build a resilient future.
Augures! exemplifies this approach: using science not just to predict, but to prepare; not just to analyze, but to act; and not just to inform, but to empower. For European agriculture, the message is clear: the time to anticipate, adapt, and invest in resilience is now.